by Phoebe Chongchua
| Even without a homebuyer tax credit, home sales are on track to outperform last year's rate. Being credited are the improving job market, sustained economic growth, and, of course, superior housing affordability conditions. Experts are predicting home sales to reach higher than 5 million for this year–up about 7-10 percent over last year. Currently unemployment stands at about 9 percent, but more than 100,000 jobs are created monthly and nationally that could mean 1.5 million new jobs in 2011, according to the National Association of Realtor's (NAR) Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun. Painting an even more optimistic picture, Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac (secondary mortgage market company), expects more job growth–nearing the 2-million mark. However this will only make a dent in the unemployment rate. Approximately 2 million jobs were lost in the recession (2008-2009) and an expected 2-million new incoming job entrants from college, etc. will continue the unemployment gap. However, experts say the unemployment rate should fall to 8.8 percent in 2011, 8.6 percent the following year, and then drop to 6 percent, a more normal level, around 2015. Yun also expects the Gross Domestic Product to grow 2.5 percent in 2011 and in 2012, 2.7 percent. Still, housing prices are the most affordable ever which means that, based on NAR's Affordability Index, those who earn the national median income have 170 percent of the income needed to purchase a home priced at the national median. Marking four solid years of little price change, Yun expects the median existing-home price to stay at approximately $170,000 for the next couple of years. What are helping make these homes so affordable are the low interest rates. Couple that with the surplus of inventory of distressed homes where homeowners are "under water" (owing more than the value of the home) and it's understandable why the market is so affordable. But despite the low rates and affordable housing, experts say, the lending conditions are not quite ripe for increasing home sales even though lenders are now in a position (with plenty of cash) to make loans to qualified buyers. What some call the new "overly" strict lending standards are being blamed for the present lack of more robust housing sales. So what's the best position for a homebuyer? Cash, of course, works great in any market conditions. All-cash buyers represent 40 percent of the market. This type of buyer typically isn't a first-time buyer. Instead these are usually investors who either believe they'll get a better return on their money by investing in real estate or they can't get mortgage financing. And a recent NAR study found that 59 percent of investors paid all cash. According to past surveys, that figure is significantly higher than the 32 percent and 17 percent in 2006 and 2004, respectively. Hot cash markets included Florida, California, and Arizona. Meanwhile, experts say refinancing may only produce half the activity it did last year which could create reason for banks to be more willing to lend to home buyers again. |
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